Thursday, March 11, 2021

Biased News - Dissection of an Article

I read the Wall Street Journal every day. In the past year, I've noticed gradual slippage of objectivity where a left-of-center viewpoint breaks through more and more. The best arguments from the left are included, while the worst arguments are excluded and not scrutinized and only weak arguments from the right-of-center are included. Because I read a lot of news, I know a lot of the right-of-center arguments and the left-of-center arguments and can tell when good and bad arguments are being used or omitted, but an article from today's Wall Street Journal is a great example.

The article is about the Protect the Right to Organize (PRO) Act. Democrats passed this in Congress with the support of 5 Republicans, but its future in the Senate looks rocky. By this fact alone, the reader (and the writers) should assume a certain strength of arguments from both sides.

The first two sentences are innocuous, "most significant change to labor law in decades", unions pressuring Biden, and the vote count. Then this:

"Backers say the legislation would be a major advancement in employer rights..." followed by "[Opponents] assailed the bill, saying it would trample on state laws and endanger the flexibility that ride-share and delivery and drivers enjoy."

Ask yourself, right now, with the little information you have, whom do you support at this point in the article? I'm obviously right of center, but the "assailers"' argument seems much narrower and weaker than the supporters--"major advancement in rights" vs. "trample on state laws" and "less flexibility" for an extremely narrow set of employers. Do these summaries of the two sides seem relatively balanced? Perhaps the writers did use the best summary for the opponents, though, let's continue.

The next paragraphs are inside baseball paragraphs and are fine. Then in the sixth paragraph, the article provides the first concrete piece from the bill: $50,000 penalties for employers who violate the National Labor Relations Act and a 10 day timeline for union-employer negotiations to commence. Since there's no context for the fine (what is the current fine, what would be the actual practical implications) and no implications of the second, my first reaction was that these actually sound reasonable and fairly innocuous.

Then the harmful impacts: makes it easier for gig workers and franchised workers to unionize. No specifics, unlike above, and no context. Plus, these are painted as positives: "easier to unionize." This would be a great time to talk about how California's legislators passed legislation that had unforeseen consequences, leading to many layoffs and then the voters overturned. Instead of saying this though, they spin it as Uber and Lyft spent $200M "allowing them to bypass a state law intended to provide...protections for drivers." 

Is this objective and informative? The reader has no idea, from the story, that the California law was problematic, and the fact that a majority of Californians, after seeing some of the effects decided to undo it was minimized by describing this as corporations winning "a victory" by spending money on a ballot measure. Can we describe the PRO Act itself as "Unions win victory after spending X million dollars electing Democrats"?

This is the most obvious example of shading news coverage according to political bias. No one should consider this description as objective and high quality journalism. I don't know how newspapers work behind the scenes, but I don't understand how editors allow this.

Next there's more inside baseball, mentioning the effect on filibuster, criticism of Biden from progressives, multiple paragraphs on unions effect on elections, and finally mention of the Reconciliation process.

There is no further discussion of the elements of the bill, and I am left thinking that either Republicans' opposition to this bill is disproportionate to the strength of their arguments or that this article is omitting a lot of details. Well, doing a search shows that it's the latter, which isn't surprising. While at this point, I don't have much trust that most news outlets will present the best right-of-center arguments, in this case NPR does describe the bill more than Wall Street Journal.

It describes five primary effects of the legislation: 1) Eradication of State Right to Work Laws 2) Outlawing company-sponsored meetings of employees to discuss unionization 3) Arbitration and mediation for first contracts 4) Outlawing the use of immigration status 5) monetary penalties.

#5 was the detail provided by Wall Street Journal's article. #1 and #2 primarily, and #3 to some degree explain why Republicans' opposition will be strong. Republicans obviously support states' rights and Right to Work laws, and the federal government coming in and nullifying laws passed in individual states would be a non-starter for Republicans. Outlawing company sponsored meetings would also be hugely problematic and calls for context in the story. Firstly, it seems like it may be a 1st amendment issue. Secondly, practically, banning employer-sponsored meetings and discussion of unionization seems a pretty radical and unnecessary way to prevent undue influence (which should be banned).

Neither of these were mentioned by the Wall Street Journal's article but are absolutely integral in understanding the opposition and the issue. They are also easily discoverable. Their absence from this story borders on negligence, but is clearly a sign of poor journalism, not just under-informing readers but attempting to bias them.

Sunday, March 7, 2021

Is Raya and the Last Dragon about 2021 America?

***Mild Spoilers for Raya and the Last Dragon***

Raya and the Last Dragon, Disney's most recent animated feature film, offers a much needed lesson for today. Its theme and message are timeless and are sorely needed in the fractured world in which it finds itself. While the moral it espouses is not new, those who practice and preach it are as endangered in our world as the dragons are in its. 

In Raya, the story begins six years after society collapses, and centuries after a war that nearly destroyed the world. Five hundred years ago, creatures called Druuns, shapeless monsters that turn living things they envelop into stone, ravaged the world, petrifying humans and dragons alike. Humans had no defense against them, but dragons had the power to fight them. Despite their magic, even the dragons succumbed. When only a handful of dragons remained, the final dragons forged their powers into a gemstone which neutralized the Druuns permanently, allowing humans to flourish again. 

No longer threatened by the Druuns nor guided by the dragons, humans behaved as humans do, splitting into factions and becoming mistrustful of others. Their world, Kumandra, splits into five countries representing the body of a dragon - fangs, spine, heart, talon, and tail. For 500 years, the tribes enjoy an uneasy peace. While they don't trust each other and are always prepared for battle, power is roughly equal across the tribes and a multilateral cold war results.

Raya's father Benja leads Heart and protects the gemstone containing the dragons' power. The story begins when Benja decides that it's time to reunite all the tribes and invites the leaders from Fang, Talon, Spine, and Tail for a state dinner in hopes that reunification will eventually develop. Raya befriends the princess of Fang, Namaari, who gives Raya a dragon necklace as a token of friendship. In return, Raya takes Namaari to see the dragon gemstone. Namaari, however, attacks Raya and calls in Fang troops, as her plan had been to befriend Raya so that Fang could capture the gemstone.

Benja immediately comes to help Raya protect the gemstone, while the other tribes' leaders arrive shortly thereafter. Benja again pushes for peace and unity, but he is shot in the leg. Immediately after, all the tribes begin fighting for the gemstone, and it falls to the ground and breaks into five pieces. The Druuns immediately reappear and resume their war on humans. Each tribal leader grabs a piece of the stone and escapes. Raya helps Benja leave, but Benja throws her into the river to save her from the Druuns shortly before he turns to stone.

The movie jumps six years into the future, as Raya tries to undo the damage from that night and bring back her father. The plot follows Raya as she seeks the last dragon who is said to have survived its battle and then to recover the pieces of the gemstone. The real challenge Raya must overcome, however, is her lack of trust. After seeing her father and his dream of unity die because he took a step towards peace and trusted others, and because she herself trusted someone who betrayed her, Raya lost any faith in people she had. Raya's arc hinges on this distrust, and she must overcome it to bring back her father and her people and unite Kumandra. 

The world today is a lot like Raya's Kumandra, especially politically. Over the past few decades, the country has become intensely tribal along political lines. Red states and blue states only begin to describe the level of animosity seen. On Twitter, on news sites' comment pages, on cable news networks, we call the other side names, ascribe to them malicious intent, attribute their motivations cynical self-interest. These forums, unfortunately, reward tribalism. The more someone calls the other side corrupt and the more extreme their language, the higher their tribe raises them. 

Another outcome of this is that even those people in the center, not wanting to fight, can't escape the frenzy. Tribalism not only strengthens the extreme elements, but it affects how we see the less extreme elements. If you're not "us" you're "them", and since you are good, "they" must be bad. Tribalism muddies our perception of people. Even though those who disagree with you may be better people than many of those who agree with you, you're pushed into thinking the opposite. We look for reasons not to trust one another.

On Twitter, I've had many disagreements with people on the other side of the political schism. I've tried immensely to keep things polite, and I've never made things personal or questioned anyone's motives or put someone down in even the mildest way. While my sparring partners have used mild personal attacks, they've never said anything egregiously insulting to me. Generally, when a personal attack is used against me (and they have all been relatively tame), I call attention to it. Half the time the reaction is to abandon it, the other half is to criticize me for being sensitive.

How Twitter reflects the conflict in Raya, though, is that it is extremely difficult to get someone on Twitter to either admit a good argument from the other side that hurts their own side, or even to admit somewhere they agree. These are obvious manifestations of tribalism, the inability to even slightly side with another tribe. Acknowledging either is a type of olive branch to the other side, an act of good-faith. To date, I have only once been the recipient, and it took multiple back and forth tweets and me digging up a quotation from a public figure which directly proved my own argument. But until I provided a direct quote, my opponent would not even acknowledge the possibility of a different interpretation. Tribalism prevented him from even entertaining the notion that there was any interpretation of an ambiguous quote other than the one he defended.

The moral of Raya, is that to be a strong, united people again, we must be able to trust others and they have to trust us. Until we are prepared to stop judging each other based on the worst actions of the worst elements and demonstrate we are worthy of trust by going out on a limb and exposing ourselves, we will continue to come apart.

The great irony is that the people who would most benefit from this lesson already believe themselves to be the paragons, to need no lessons in humanity. I'm sure you do, yourself, dear reader, so I urge you to ask yourself, and push others to ask themselves, which tribe are you in? When you're arguing with the other tribe, do you seek common ground? Do you seek to narrow the scope of disagreement or to expand it? When you disagree, do you immediately assume that the other person is ignorant, unintelligent, indoctrinated, or cruel? Do you interpret their arguments in the worst possible way or the best? Honestly answering these questions will enable you to determine how tribal you are. 

Whether you want a world where mistrust and hatred prevail and define us is a different question.

Friday, February 12, 2021

Double Standards Wrecking America

Once again, Democrats have done what they used to hyperventilate about Republicans potentially doing.

Yesterday, the NY Post published the accusation (from a whistleblower) that Governor Cuomo and his team hid data for political purposes. Ask yourself, how serious is this. 

Now compare this to the announcement over the summer that the HHS would take over data reporting from the CDC. If you don't remember, there was a ten-alarm outrage fire from the media about politicizing data collection and hiding data. All of which was worried speculation based on the belief that Trump is the most evil and cynical human being that has ever lived.


Anyone who was outraged by the possibility that Trump would hide data should be even more outraged by Cuomo actually doing it! But they're not. Are there calls from Democrats or the media for an investigation or just Republicans? Do you know any Democrats? Is their reaction proportional to the events?

Also, consider the reaction to and follow-up investigations of Chris Christie when someone on his staff closed a bridge.

This is just a single example from the past fortnight. Over and over again, we were warned that Trump doesn't believe experts and puts politics ahead of science. Yet, Biden does the exact same thing, dismisses the well-documented position of the director of the CDC as just a personal opinion and minimizing it because he didn't want to run afoul of the teachers' unions. That is absolutely his right, but the media should call him out on it. It should apply at least 50% of the scrutiny it applied to Trump.

Gina Carano was fired because "her social media posts denigrating people based on their cultural and religious identities are abhorrent and unacceptable." This was the post she shared:

“Jews were beaten in the streets, not by Nazi soldiers but by their neighbors…even by children. Because history is edited, most people today don’t realize that to get to the point where Nazi soldiers could easily round up thousands of Jews, the government first made their own neighbors hate them simply for being Jews. How is that any different from hating someone for their political views”

Do you think this statement is "abhorrent" or that it denigrates anyone, let alone denigrates them based on their cultural and religious identities? Some make the argument that any comparison of today to what happened to the Jews is itself abhorrent. Firstly, to be totally clear, this post does not say that what is happening today is the same as the violence against the Jews, the concentration camps, or the genocide itself. Read literally, it is comparing only the existence of neighbor on neighbor hate. But secondly, if any comparison is off-limits, then Pedro Pascal should also be fired.

There is a great chasm in the reactions from the media and left-leaning people. They may agree with everything in this post, but because of their political affiliations, their level of outrage is highly correlated with not the events themselves but the affiliations of the people involved. Their blood boils when it's the other side and when it's on their side, they nod and move on.

This leads to a huge disparity in consequences. Republicans get fired and ridiculed, and oftentimes Democrats skate on without punishment. For this country to continue to work, the consequences have to depend on the offense and not the offender. There cannot be different punishments depending on the political affiliation of the criminal. Unfortunately, this phenomenon is rampant, both in the media and in the public, and the only step towards solving it I can imagine is to continue to push people to look at themselves, consider whether they are part of this problem, and try to overcome it.

Update:

Yet another example: White House Press Secretary TJ Ducklo threatened a reporter writing a story about him. His threats included "I will destroy you" and that he would "ruin her reputation." Pre-Biden, any threats made by a White House official against a reporter would have been met with a day of stories and opinions about the end of democracy. In this case, there's no coverage on the main page of Google News; I had to search for Psaki to find the details. This gap in the level of caring by Democrats and the media will lead to disaster in the long-run.


Monday, February 8, 2021

How the Left Wins - Marjorie Taylor Greene Edition

The Marjorie Taylor Greene situation perfectly exemplifies how Democrats (and the media) do business to break all the rules and not look back.

For those who don't know, Marjorie Taylor Greene (or MGT for the twitterati) is a US Congresswoman from Georgia who has said some pretty outrageous things. I will not defend her sanity, her qualifications, her suitability for Congress, or her suitability to serve on committees other than to say that typically the media serially exaggerate, so she's probably not as crazy as they are projecting.

What I wish to debate is the narrower issue of whether or not the Democrats should strip her of her committee assignments. Every elected Congressperson is assigned committees to serve on in their respective legislative body by their party. The committee seats are allocated depending on the overall breakdown of the parties within their house. For example, if there were 50% Republicans and 50% Democrats, then the committees would each be 50/50, too. 

The Democrats, though, want to remove Congresswoman Greene from her assignments. This is unprecedented, and Republicans argue that the Republicans should be the ones making this decision, not the Democrats. More broadly, considering the larger implications, should the Democrats do this, they are breaking a precedent and setting a new one, one in which the majority party can decide who serves on committees for the minority party. This is the argument. Looking forward, it's very likely that even if Democrats have a good argument that Ms. Greene shouldn't be on committees, what's to prevent that standard to erode over time?

This is exactly why Republicans have lost and will always lose. They are much less willing to break precedents and erode these standards. In addition to that, the media are much less protective of standards and precedents when Democrats are breaking them. A legitimate and informative media would have focused on the bigger picture arguments instead of hyping up all of Ms. Greene's statements. But this way, what does the American public think about the situation - only that Ms. Greene has said some crazy things and should probably be punished somehow. Since the only punishment being floated is removal from committees, they assume that's the proper punishment and agree it's reasonable. 

In a nutshell, this is how Democrats and the media ceaselessly and successfully push the culture in their direction. First, they misinform the public by telling them one side of the story, the easy side, the provocative side. Not only that, but they build up the argument against by pointing to the most extreme elements that support their side. They completely ignore the legitimate arguments on the other side, and they break precedent. Finally, years from now, one of two things happens: 1) They do it all over again and move the ball farther forward towards their own goal or 2) When Republicans try it, they use all their tactics against the Republicans, and if Republicans say, 'yeah, but you didn't say anything before' then they dismiss that as 'whataboutism'.

Friday, January 22, 2021

The Media Then and Now

Several stories from President Biden's first two days in office really illustrate how differently the media treat President Biden from President Trump.

Pete Buttigieg's nomination to be Secretary of Transportation (compare to Trump's nominations) - 


Try to imagine if any of these stories occurred during Trump's presidency and how the media would have covered them. Compare to how they're being covered now. Thinking about that, it's clear that the media's approach to the Trump years consisted of the following:

1. Ignore all context. Remember the spate of "racist" Cabinet nominees? The formula was simple, find one action they committed throughout their life, that could be interpreted as racist and then call them racist full stop. Ignore everything else about their life. If someone called them a racist in their past, then they are a racist full stop. Do not under any circumstances write a full story about the sum total of their life and the counter-examples. The press repeatedly ignored context in stories about Trump to paint everything as egregious. When he moved the embassy in Israel, there was scant mention that every president had promised to do so. 

2. Interpret the story in the most negative way. For Cabinet nominees, if they only have private sector experience, lambast them for not having government experience. If they have government experience, criticize them for getting questions wrong. Ignore all the positive aspects. If one answer is wrong, then they are unqualified. The embassy story is another good example; how many people decried the move and said it meant the end of peace and imminent war? How many outlets pushed back?

3. Assume the most evil motivation. The press commonly attributed Trump's actions to evil intentions. They laid the groundwork for this by constantly claiming he was a racist and an authoritarian. Then when he would do something they didn't like or they misinterpreted, they would explain it by his being one or the other.

4. Assume that President Trump was responsible for anything bad that happened. This would apply to the story about the National Guard. There would be many stories about how awful this action was, and the assumption that Trump was directly responsible. Then they would talk about how he hates his base and he treats them like garbage. 

How many on the left blame Trump for the Covid economy? Was Trump responsible for Covid? How does he compare to European leaders? Are other European leaders blamed for their Covid economy? There's no question that Trump could have handled Covid better, but the fact that several European countries did just as bad demonstrates that Trump wasn't uniquely bad. How often do you see comparisons of US to countries that are worse? A responsible media would show how US performance compares to countries better AND worse. Not just the countries that are better. The vaccination story is similar. The US is a top-5 vaccinating country, both in absolute terms and daily. Therefore, the media don't report on that, or if they do, they compare us to Israel, which is the best.

5. Repeat the same stories that the other outlets are reporting. This will serve to amplify the story. Notice how negative stories about Biden, where they exist, are extremely isolated.

6. Point out, amplify, and ridicule every hypocrisy and mistake. Imagine if Trump had issued an order that masks be worn on federal property and then was on federal property with a group of people unmasked. How many stories would be written about that? What would be the tone?

There's no question that the corporate media treat Biden differently than Trump. Since I can't fix it, and I doubt anyone can, it's vital that we illustrate this to as many people as possible so that they're aware of how they're being manipulated.

Thursday, January 21, 2021

The Resumption of the Unskeptical Press

President Biden has made it a goal of his to vaccinate 100 million people in the first 100 days of his first term. This, obviously, would require an average of 1 million people per day. Given the number of vaccinations that are occurring daily, however, this goal doesn't seem especially ambitious.

In the past week, the average daily doses were 939,973. In fact, more than 1 million doses have been administered five times already. The average so far for this business week (Monday was a national holiday) is 1.3 million.


In light of this, it doesn't seem like it would take much effort to achieve Biden's goal. This can never be proven, but I would bet it would be achieved simply by making no changes to the current personnel or plan, but that won't be done.

This all seems pretty straightforward. Perhaps the above analysis has a tinge of bias to it, but even many on the left wonder how ambitious this goal is, and any responsible journalist would surely point out that Trump left a system that was producing nearly 1 million per day, correct?

Doing a google search on "100 million vaccines" produced the following (in order)


All of these headlines at least imply that this is very ambitious. The first article though, to its credit, does explicitly say this isn't very ambitious, and goes even further to say, that that goal would itself waste tens of millions of vaccines. The Independent article makes no mention of the current state of vaccinations. NBC News explicitly calls it ambitious, then doesn't provide the current state of vaccinations, but does talk about the daily and total deaths so far. The KTLA story also mentions daily and total deaths but not vaccinations. 

The WebMD story calls it "attainable" yet "extremely challenging." It calls a 1 million/day pace "somewhat of an increase over what we're already doing." Then does mention the total number of shots given and shipped since December 14th, which wouldn't provide the context of how difficult it would be for Biden's administration to build on where we are now.

The NYTimes Opinion piece goes an extra step, and provides the average number of vaccinations per day since mid-December--447,000. This is quite a misleading statement. Of course vaccinations were slower in the beginning days. Omitting the current pace of vaccinations should earn this opinion piece a "Misleading" label from the fact checkers.

Like several of the others, The Hill article includes the total number of Americans who have died, and the total number of doses distributed. It also quotes CNN claiming "Biden is 'inheriting a nonexistent vaccine plan' from the Trump administration." It's a good thing The Hill's readers aren't told that Trump's non-existent plan is producing the same number of vaccinations as Biden's "bold" goal.

The other indirect source of the poor reporting might be Google's search itself. Of the top ten stories returned, only one of them actually provided the context of the current daily vaccination rate, and no link to the information itself. These figures are not hard to find. Simply searching "vaccination progress" produces them. The only explanation for not including them is egregiously bad reporting or the lack of interest in actually informing the public for fear of making Biden look worse than Trump.

Again, kudos to the NY Times first article. They get today's good journalism award: Sharon LaFraniere and Noah Weiland. Joseph Guzman wins the award for bad journalism. Thomas J. Kollyky, Jennifer B. Nuzzo and Prasith Baccam win the "Too Biased to be Informative Opinion" Award

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Censorship for Thee but not for Me

These are the opinions of the left, as I've surmised them. Not all of the left believes all of them, but I have heard or deduced each of these arguments from them.

1. The social media moderators try to reduce racist, hateful, and misinformation on their platforms.
2. The social media moderators, while mostly left-leaning, apply their standards blindly and without regard to politics.
3a. The right is more likely to generate content that fits into #1, and so gets suppressed more.
3b. There is no disparity between moderation of the left and right.
4. There is no moderation of the right. (Because right-leaning users have high engagement)
5. The word "suppress" is too polemical.

#3 is split into two, because both can't be true, but I've heard both arguments. #4 is a remarkably terrible argument. There are many reasons why the right can have high engagement despite an effort to reduce it. Making this argument is like saying masks have no effect on Covid spread because countries with mask mandates are seeing Covid spread. There is no way to infer the effect of a deterrent by observing the final amount of anactivity. The only thing that high engagement tells you is that any moderation isn't 100%, which no one is arguing.

This is what the right believes, as I understand it:

1. The social media moderators try to suppress racist, hateful, and misinformation, and that's ok.
2. The social media moderators, mostly left-leaning, apply their standards inconsistently and overzealously because of their own views.

Recent events are substantial evidence that #2 is true. 

The NY Post story. First, Twitter banned the links altogether because the story was based on hacked e-mails or it contained private information, so they said. First, there was no evidence that the e-mails were hacked. Recovered under dubious circumstances, to be sure, but no indication they were obtained illegally. On the other hand, the NYTimes story about Trump's taxes was very likely based on tax returns obtained illegally. There's clearly a double-standard. Twitter has also never acted to suppress a political story that contained private information. Again the NYT story about Trump's taxes would seem to fit into this definition. 

On the overzealous application of their "standards," the recent post from U.S. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan is illustrative. Twitter suspended him for a post about the border wall. The text of the post: "[Customs Border Protection and US Army Corp of Engineers Headquarters] continue to build new wall every day. Every mile helps us stop gang members, murderers, sexual predators, and drugs from entering our country. It's a fact, walls work."

The explanation from Twitter: "You may not promote violence against, threaten, or harass other people on the basis of race, ethnicity, national origin, sexual orientation, gender, gender identity, religious affiliation, age, disability, or serious disease."

If we first remove everything that Twitter can't possibly be referring to: "You may not promote violence against, threaten, or harass other people on the basis of race, ethnicity, national origin....". Since there's no threat here, there's no promotion of violence, so it must be that Twitter believes this harasses other people. But still this doesn't seem to relate in anyway to the offending post.

In truth, Twitter blocked this because a moderator, representative of the left, inferred that Morgan is saying 100% of the people (who are overwhelmingly Latino) are "gang members, murderers, sexual predators, and drug [transporters]." Firstly, this is not what Morgan said, this is what Twitter inferred. Second, even if he had said exactly this, it still wouldn't fit the reason they cited, since it's not harassment. It would be an extremely egregious and racist form of stereotyping, but Twitter should have a policy for that explicitly.

The problem for the right with this episode, is Twitter is acting, call it suppressing or moderating or censoring, based on how they are interpreting a statement, not based on the literal words being used and that there's no clear policy. Taken as it is, I don't think it's disputable that there are some gang members, murderers, sexual predators, and drugs that cross the border, and if a wall is effective it'll stop them.

The left has a real problem separating text as written from their own inferences. Because their inferences are highly correlated with their political biases, it leads them to over-moderate the right. Morgan should not have been suspended for making a factual statement that didn't obviously violate Twitter's policy. Instead, Twitter should have, at most, slapped on a "Potentially racist implication" tag, and allowed Morgan to modify his language if he wanted it removed.